Going into the November election, when control of Congress will be decided, Georgia’s 10th Congressional District, which includes Oconee County, is in a position to be the third most competitive of Congressional races for seats currently held by Republicans in Georgia.
In the May 19 party primaries, 58.2 percent of the votes cast in the 10th Congressional District were in the Republican Primary, with 41.8 percent in the Democratic Primary.
Those figures were and 55.3 percent and 44.7 percent in the 1st Congressional District, which includes Savannah, and 53.9 percent Republican versus 46.1 percent in the 12th Congressional District, which includes Augusta,
Neither the 10th Congressional District nor the 1st Congressional District has an incumbent in the race, however, likely making them slightly more competitive than the numbers suggest.
Houston Gaines, who has represented part of Oconee County in the 120th House District, is the Republican Party nominee in the Congressional District 10 race, and Pamela DeLancy is the Democratic Party nominee.
Gaines, 31, from Athens, has been in the Georgia House of Representatives since shortly after he graduated from the University of Georgia in 2017. He lists his occupation as “small business development” on his qualification form.
DeLancy, 64, from McDonough in Henry County, retired from the Army as a colonel after more than 35 years of military service. She has never held elective office.
The nine Republican-held districts are gerrymandered to be safely Republican, and it will take unusual circumstances for Gaines not to win in November.
It will be less surprising if DeLancy is able to make the race closer than it has been in recent years.
November Elections
Turnout in the primaries is but one indication of the competitiveness of a race.
Across the last three November elections, Republicans have won handily in the 10th Congressional District, with 62.3 percent of the vote in 2000, 64.5 percent in 2022, and with 63.1 percent of the vote in 2024.
 |
| Click To Enlarge |
Even if that standard–vote gap in November of 2024–is used, the 10th Congressional District is the third most competitive, far ahead of the neighboring 9th Congressional District, which voted 69.0 percent Republican in 2024.
In terms of voting in November of 2024, the 12th Congressional District, with 60.3 percent Republican vote, and the 1st Congressional District, with 62.0 percent Republican vote, are more competitive than the 10th District, with the 63.1 percent Republican vote.
The district boundaries have been different in each of those three years.
In 2020, the 10th Congressional District consisted of 25 counties. It was made up of 18 in 2022 and 20 in 2024.
One of the key changes in the 2022 district boundaries was that all of strongly Democratic Clarke County was made part of the district. Prior to that change, Clarke had been split between the 9th and the 10th Congressional Districts.
Republican Jackson County was part of the 10th Congressional District in 2022 but not in 2024, which now includes a small Democratic part of Gwinnett County.
The 10th Congressional District at present includes all of 16 counties and parts of four others: Gwinnett, Henry, Newton and Wilkes. DeLancy lives in Henry County.
Change Over Time
In 2022, 74.8 percent of the votes cast in the May primary were for a Republican.
That figured dropped to 67.0 percent in May of 2024.
In the May primary of this year, 58.2 percent the votes cast were for a Republican.
In actual numbers, in 2022, when eight candidates were competing for the Republican Party nomination for the 10th Congressional District to replace Jody Hice, who ran for statewide office, 112,165 Republican ballots were cast, with Collins and Vernon Jones getting the most votes, and Collins winning the runoff.
 |
| Click To Enlarge |
The figure dropped to 62,109 in 2024, when Collins ran without opposition.
In May of this year, 89,438 voters used the Republican Ballot to select Gaines over Jeff Baker and Ryan Millsap. Gaines received 66.9 percent of the vote.
In 2022, when five Democrats were competing for the party nomination for the 10th Congressional District, 37,702 voters selected the Democratic ballot.
Tabitha Johnson-Green and Jessica Allison Fore moved on to the runoff, with Green ultimately getting the party nomination.
In 2024, when Alexandra “Lexy” Doherty and Jessica Fore were competing for the Democratic Party nomination, 30,572 voters selected the Democratic ballot.
In 2026, when DeLancy, Doherty, and John Dority were competing for the party nomination, the Democratic vote more than doubled, to 64,328.
Only 153,766 voters cast a ballot in May, compared with 406,716 who cast a ballot in the race between Collins and Doherty in November of 2024.
The number of votes cast likely will be lower this November than it was in 2024, when a presidential contest was on the ballot.
But Gaines almost certainly is going to have to add to the 89,438 votes cast for Republicans in May to win, and DeLancy is going to have to add even more to the 64,438 cast for Democrats in May to be successful.
Campaign Finances
Gaines enters the fall campaign with an immense funding advantage over DeLancy.
As of June 30, Gaines had received $2.3 million in contributions, had spent $1.6 million, and had $703,419 on hand.
DeLancy had raised $23,080, had spent $11,121, and had $8,705 on hand.
Of the $23,080 DeLancy received, $7,100 was a loan DeLancy made to the campaign, and $4,100 is listed as remaining debt in the June 30 report.
Gaines listed no loans to his campaign.
Gaines has demonstrated exceptional fundraising skills in his political career, which began even before he finished his university studies in 2017. He was first elected to the House in 2018.
As of July 1 of last year, Gaines had $908,541 in his campaign fund for House District 120, and he raised an additional $34,695 from that date to Jan. 31 of this year, bringing his total to $943,236.
Gaines didn’t take in any money for that account since that time, and he spent $929,803, much of it by refunding contributions, leaving a balance of $13,433 at the end of July.
In his Congressional campaign, Gaines received $1.1 million through WinRed, a fundraising platform for the Republican Party.
Separately, he received contributions of $21,000 from Amir Ghoddousi and from Vassa Cate, both of Georgia.
He received large contributions from Tennessee, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, Washington, D.C., Texas, and Illinois.
His three most recent contributions listed were $2,500 from the United States Peanut Political Action Committee of Washington, D.C., $1,000 from the RWA Fund Inc., of Georgia, and $1,000 from the Reynolds American Inc. Political Action Committee of North Carolina.
The RWA Fund is controlled by 12th District Republican Congressman Rich W. Allen.
Oconee County’s Role
In November of 2024, the total number of votes cast in the 10th Congressional District race was 406,716, with Henry County contributing 15.4 percent of the vote, followed by Walton, with 14.1 percent, Clarke with 12.8 percent, and Barrow with 10.6 percent. Oconee followed with 6.7 percent of the vote, and Newton was next, with 6.1 percent. No other county contributed more than 4 percent of the vote.
In the May primary this year, Henry County contributed 15.6 percent of the vote, Clarke contributed 16.1 percent of the vote, followed by Walton (13.0 percent), Barrow (8.4 percent), Oconee 7.6 percent, and Newton (6.2 percent).
 |
| Click To Enlarge |
No other county contributed more than 4 percent of the total vote.
In November of 2024, 65.7 percent of the vote in the 10th District race was cast in those six counties, with the percentage jumping to 69.2 percent if the small part of adjoining Gwinnett is added.
In the May 2026 primary vote for the 10th Congressional District candidates, 65.8 percent was cast in those six counties, with the percentage jumping to 68.7 percent if Gwinnett is added.
Overall the vote in the May primary of this year was 4.9 percent less Republican, or 4.9 percent more Democratic, than it had been in November of 2024.
Only five counties became more Republican in their vote, and Oconee was one of them, ahead of Hart and Greene counties, but behind Putnam and Franklin counties. Oconee County became 2.1 percent more Republican.
All of the other six large counties, as well as Gwinnett, became less Republican.
For Henry, that change was 11.0 percent less Republican. For Clarke, it was 5.9 percent less Republican. Walton was 1.8 percent less Republican, Barrow was 2.8 percent less Republican, and Newton it was 7.4 percent less Republican. Gwinnett was 9.1 percent less Republican.
The Oconee County Republican Party is meeting at 5:30 p.m. on Aug. 24 at the Lobby Meeting Room of Piedmont Oconee Health Campus, 1305 Jennings Road Road, under the heading The Road to 2026 GOP Victory Runs Through Oconee County.
Gaines is pictured in the announcement.
The road also clearly runs through Clarke, Barrow, Gwinnett, Walton, Newton, and Henry counties.
Note
My wife, Ann Hollifield, is a member of the Oconee County Democratic Party Committee and, in that capacity, is supporting DeLancy.
Hollifield is a retired faculty member from the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Georgia, as am I.
I am aware that she has met with DeLancy in person, and perhaps with DeLancy’s campaign manager, at least once, and that she has had several conversation with them. I presume they are discussing campaign communication strategy.
I have not been involved in any of those discussions and have not talked with my wife about them.
I also have not shared the data analysis I did for this post with her and have not discussed this post with her in advance of its publication. She will see the post for the first time when she reads it on her own.
No comments:
Post a Comment