Sunday, April 05, 2020

Oconee, Clarke, Barrow, Walton And Jackson Counties Add COVID-19 Confirmed Cases; Walton County Has First Death From Disease

***Ratio Of Confirmed Cases Per Population Increases Greatly In Week***

Oconee, Clarke, Barrow, Walton and Jackson counties all added new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the 24-hour period that ended at noon on Sunday, and Walton County counted its first death attributable to the disease.

The total number of cases in Oconee County in the noon Daily Status Report from the Georgia Department of Health was 24. It was 62 in Clarke County and 25 in Barrow County.

Across the 10-county Northeast Health District of the Department of Health that includes Oconee and Clarke counties, the number of cases at noon on Sunday was 168, up from 156 at noon on Saturday.

Georgia added 487 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the 24-hour period ended at noon on Sunday, 44 hospitalizations due to the disease, and 10 deaths.

The number of confirmed cases in the state, according to the noon Daily Status Report, was 6,647, the number of hospitalizations was 1,283, and the number of deaths was 211.

The noon status report now shows at least one case of COVID-19 in all but 10 of the state’s 159 counties.

The ratio of number of COVID-19 cases per person in Georgia now is .000626, or 6.26 per 10,000 people, up from 2.23 per 10,000 people a week ago.

In Oconee County, it is 5.96 per 10,000 people, up from 2.48 per 10,000 people a week ago.

Update 7 p.m.: Walton County added two more confirmed cases of COVID-19 and a second death due to the disease in the 7 p.m. Daily Status Report for Sunday.

None of the other counties in the 10-county Northeast Health District added any confirmed cases or deaths.

The box in Chart 1 has been revised to show the change for Walton County and the increase of 95 confirmed cases, 13 hospitalizations, and 8 deaths across the state.

The second Walton County death was of a 74-year-old male without known existing conditions.

Four Charts

The Walton County death was of a 75-year-old male without known existing conditions.

The death in Walton County brings to 13 the number of deaths in the 10-county Northeast Health District of the Georgia Department of Health.

The box in Chart 1 lists the number of confirmed cases and deaths in each of the 10 counties.

The line chart show the changes across time for Clarke, Oconee and Barrow counties, which have the highest counts of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the region, and for the state.

All of the increases in confirmed cases of COVID-19 reflected in the Chart for the 10-county Northeast Health District had been included in the 7 p.m. Daily Status Report for Saturday except for the increase of a single case and the death in Walton County.

Chart 1 7 p.m. (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 2 below shows the ratios, multiplied by 10,000, of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the noon status report from Sunday and in the noon status report from a week earlier.

The ratios are small, and multiplying them by 10,000 converts them to whole numbers and provides a reference point.

Oconee County has an estimated population for July 1, 2019, of 40,280, so it is easy to see that the ratio shown here, multiplied by four and divided by 10,000, produces the 24 actual cases counted for the county.

Clearly the chances of encountering someone with a known diagnosis of COVID-19 if there were no social isolation have gone up greatly in a week in the state and in Oconee County.

The Clarke County ratios most likely are misleading, since many of the estimated 128,331 residents of the county are students who are away from the area at this time.

Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 3 below shows data for the state going back to March 2, when the first cases in the state were detected.

Chart 3 (Click to Enlarge)

The data in Chart 3 are cumulative. Chart 4 reports the numbers of confirmed cases, deaths and tests on a daily basis.

As the number of tests went up from Saturday to Sunday, so did the number of confirmed cases.

The Department of Health indicates that it experiences reporting gaps from the field that affect the data made available in each Daily Status Report.

Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge)


River Rat said...

It would be really helpful to know where the cases in Oconee are occurring. For instance, knowing someone in the Butlers Crossing area was confirmed would make people more alert to use proper safety protocols in that area. The probability of coming in contact with an infected person is perceived to be low in the county. While this is not healthy, it is a perception. Knowing it has shown up in your area of operations makes it more real. In any case, stay home and use good sanitation discipline.

Lee Becker said...

River Rat,

The Daily Status Report is only specific to the county. The second chart in this post does give a sense of the likelihood of encountering someone with the disease at that level.

I am asking those of you who do not have your name in your google profile to please sign you name.



Unknown said...

In Hong Kong, they actually published the names of positive people each am so that anyone who had been in contact with those people could come forward to be tested. I know this cannot happen in the US due to privacy laws but the more information people have, the better the pandemic could be controlled.

Lee Becker said...


I am asking that everyone either change their google profile to include a real name or sign their name with their comment.