Saturday, April 25, 2020

Seven-Day Rolling Averages Of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Grew On Saturday In Northeast Health District And State

***No New Deaths In Region***

The Northeast Health District of the Georgia Department of Health added 26 new cases with the noon Daily Status Report on Saturday as each of the 10 counties in the district added at least one case except for Clarke and Morgan counties.

Oconee County added a single case, while bordering Walton County added nine cases and Oglethrope County added seven cases.

The 26 added cases were down from the 34 cases added with the noon Daily Status Report on Friday but up from the seven cases added at noon on Saturday a week ago.

The seven-day rolling average increased from 20.0 cases per day to 22.7, providing little evidence that the growth in COVID-19 cases in the 10-county region has plateaued.

The Northeast Heath District added no new deaths attributable to COVID-19, and the region has not added a death to the disease since Tuesday, when 25 deaths were reached. That indicant of the disease seems to have level leveled off.

At the state level, the number of confirmed cases grew by 548 with the noon Daily Status Report on Saturday, and the number of deaths grew by 12.

The 548 cases were down from 635 on Friday but up from 475 a week ago, and the seven-day rolling average of cases grew from 707.6 to 718.0.

The 12 deaths in the state compared with 20 on Friday and 23 on April 18, and the seven-day rolling average dropped from 34.6 to 33.0.

Charts

Chart 1 below plots the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across time for the 10-county Northeast Health District (orange line, left-hand vertical axis) and for the state of Georgia (blue line, right-hand vertical axis.)

The chart shows that patterns for growth in the region and the state as a whole are the same and that neither line has turned down.

The number of deaths for each of the 10 counties in the Northeast Health District is listed in the box at the top, left of the chart.

The chart and box are updated to include the raw data on confirmed cases from the noon Saturday Daily Status Report.

Chart 1 (Click To Enlarge)
Chart 2 shows the lines for each of the 10 counties in the Northeast Health District. The box in the chart shows the population for each of the 10 counties, based on the 2019 Census Bureau estimates.

Clarke County, the largest county in terms of population, has the largest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, but it is followed by Barrow County, which is smaller in population that Walton County, with the yellow and third line in the chart.

Jackson County is represented by the fourth line, and Oconee by the fifth. Oconee is fifth in population and in terms of ranking for number of COVID-19 cases.

Greene and Oglethorpe counties have more cases than their populations would suggest they should.

The Department of Public Health has refused to indicate how the data it presents in the Daily Status Report are assigned to counties.

It is possible the data are based on Zip Code, which is only a very rough approximation of county.

The chart includes data through the noon Daily Status report on Saturday.

While some of the 10 counties show a leveling off of cumulative cases, including Oconee County, others, including Barrow, Walton and Jackson, show strong continued growth.

Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 3 shows the raw data used to plot the lines in Chart 2.

The data begin with the discovery of the first case in the region (in Clarke County) on March 14.

The data have been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Saturday Daily Status Report.

Chart 3 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 4 below shows the actual number of new reported confirmed COVID-19 cases across time in the Northeast Health District, with the blue line showing the actual count and the orange line showing the rolling or moving seven-day average.

The lines have been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Saturday Daily Status Report.

Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge)
Chart 5 below summarizes the cumulative data from the state of Georgia on four indicators: number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, number of tests for the disease, and number of hospitalizations for treatment of the disease.

The charts begin on March 2, when the first cases were discovered in Atlanta. Measures of tests and hospitalizations are included from the point at which the Daily Status Report provided those data.

The chart at the top-left differs from Chart 1 in that it go back further in time.

Each of the four charts has been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Saturday Daily Status Report.

Chart 5 (Click To Enlarge)
Chart 6 below provides the actual number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths attributable to the disease going back to March 2 for the state of Georgia. Those data are plotted with the blue lines.

The orange lines are based on computation of the rolling or moving seven-day averages for confirmed cases and deaths.

The two charts have been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Saturday Daily Status Report.

Chart 6 (Click To Enlarge)

1 comment:

Xardox said...

Excellent set of graphics.
As with any set of highly variable numbers (like the stock market),
rolling averages are easier to see than "beta," or root-mean-square figure.
We look forward to see these figures in a week or two.
Thanks!
Bill Mayberry