Monday, May 04, 2020

Northeast Health District Adds Nine New COVID-19 Confirmed Cases; Seven-Day Rolling Average Of Added Cases Drops Slightly

***Sheriff Addes One Active Case On Sunday***

The first day of the work week generally is a light days for reporting for the Department of Public Health COVID-19 Daily Status Report, and the Northeast Health District added only nine confirmed cases in the report issued just before noon on Monday.

Oconee County did not add any new cases, while Clarke County added three cases and Barrow County added four.

The seven-day rolling average of added cases for the 10-county Northeast Health District dropped slightly from 27.3 cases per day to 26.9.

No new deaths were reported in the Northeast Health District, with the total standing at 30.

Oconee County Sheriff Scott Berry reported that the Georgia Emergency Management Agency added one Active COVID case to the county on Sunday but none on Monday, bringing to the total number of Active Cases to 21.

Across the state, COVID-19 cases now have been confirmed in all of the state’s159 counties except for Glascock County west of Augusta, and the total number of cases increased by 501 to 29,103 with the Daily Status Report issued at 11:25 a.m. on Monday.

Testing also has increased, though at an irregular pace, according to the data released by the Department of Public Health.

The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 increased by 27 on Monday, and the seven-day rolling average of deaths decreased just slightly from 37.9 to 37.4.

The Department of Public Health has released new data in recent days dating death by time of occurrence rather than by the time the death was recorded by the Department of Public Health.

A comparison of the rolling averages for the two different ways of measuring deaths shows that during the period for which the Department of Public Health says complete data are available, neither measure shows deaths are declining.


The first chart below presents the raw data on cases added and the seven-day rolling average of cases added in the Northeast Health District. Data are included from the 11:25 a.m. Monday Daily Status Report.

The second and third charts show number of cases added and deaths for the state of Georgia. Seven-day rolling averages are shown for both charts. Data are included from the 11:25 a.m. Monday Daily Status Report.

Chart 1 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 3 (Click To Enlarge)

The final chart uses data taken from a chart in the 11:25 a.m. Daily Status Report on number of deaths, dated by occurrence rather than date of recording.

Chart 4 can be compared with Chart 3 to get a sense of the different methods.

Striking is that on April 7 the Daily Status Reported listed 100 new deaths, but the new information from the Department of Public Health indicates that only 32 people died on that date from the disease.

The Department of Public Health indicates that the data for the last 14 days are incomplete, but a comparison of the data across time indicates that deaths are shifted about in time going back much further in the chart.

The key comparison is for the period leading up to April 21 in the two charts, for this is when the data for the re-dated deaths are supposed to be complete.

Both charts show an increase in average number of deaths, regardless of how measured, during that time period.

Clearly the period in the box in Chart 4 is an important one. The best prediction given the data available is that the line will follow the line in Chart 3.

Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge)

1 comment:

Lee Becker said...

Bill Mayberry,

As I said to you on Facebook, the Department of Public Health labels the area inside the box this way: "Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending."