Thursday, July 09, 2020

Northeast Health District Adds 100 New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases; Seven-Day Rolling Average Of Added Cases Increases

***One New Death Listed In Long-Term Care Facility Report***

The Northeast Health District added 100 new COVID-19 cases with the release of the Daily Status Report of the Department of Public Health on Thursday.

The seven-day rolling average of added cases in the 10-county District increased to 90.6, the highest average recorded to date.

Clarke County added 37 cases, and Oconee County added 13. Each of the remaining counties in the District added at least one case.

The Department of Public Health did not list any new deaths in the 10-County Northeast Health District with release of the Daily Status Report on Thursday, and the seven-day rolling average of added deaths remained unchanged at 0.1.

The Department of Community Health, however, listed another death in the District in its Long-Term Care Facility Report on Thursday.

The newly recorded death was at Northridge Health and Rehabilitation in Commerce in Jackson County. Jackson County is part of the 10-county Northeast Health District.

The Department of Community Health had reported two deaths at the Jackson County nursing home on July 7, and the total number of deaths at the facility is eight. The Thursday report lists 107 residents at the nursing home.

Northridge also had reported a death in the Long-Term Care Facility Report on June 30.

None of these four deaths have appeared in the Daily Status Report of the Department or Public Health, a separate agency from the Department of Community Health.

Long-Term Care Facility Report

Northridge Health and Rehabilitation reported that the cumulative number of COVID-19 Positive Residents increased by 12 with the Thursday Department of Community Health report, and the number of active cases increased to 54 from 46 the day before. The nursing home has 107 residents.

Northridge Health and Rehabilitation also reported four new cases of staff with COVID-19 on Thursday, bringing the total to 17. A personal care facility in Walton County also added a staff member with COVID-19 to the list.

In the Long-Term Care Facility Report for Wednesday, St. Mary’s Highland Hills Village, 1660 Jennings Mill Road in Oconee County on the Clarke County line, listed four staff members with COVID-19, but the personal care home did not appear in the Thursday Report.

On May 7, St. Mary’s also appeared on the Department of Community Health list of facilities with COVID-19. One staff member was reported to have the disease.

On May 8, St. Mary’s was no longer on the list.

The figures are supposed to be cumulative, and one Northeast Health District facility on the list has remained there even after its single resident with COVID-19 has tested negative. It has had no deaths from the disease and no staff testing positive.

The Femi Care Southern Pines Living Center, a personal care home in Jackson County, joined the list for the first time on Wednesday with the report of three staff members with COVID-19 and remained on the list on Thursday with those same three cases–and no other evidence of the disease.

It is unlikely that these three staff members of Femi Care are continuing to work at the facility, which, no doubt, also is the case for the four staff with COVID-19 at St. Mary’s on Wednesday.

The Department of Community Health states that the data it reports are provided by the facility and that the Department conducts limited independent surveys of the facilities.

State Data

The State of Georgia added 2,837 new cases of COVID-19 in the Department of Public Health Daily Status report on Thursday, and the seven-day rolling averge of added cases dropped to 2,716.9 from 2,807.6 on Wednesday.

The Daily Status Report listed eight new deaths, seven of them in the last 14 days, and the seven day rolling average of added deaths dropped to 11.6 from 13.6.

Deaths have been flat in the region, state and nation in recent weeks as the number of cases has increased.

The Department of Public Health did remove one case from the archive of reported deaths attributed to COVID-19, so the actual number of added deaths was nine, not eight.

The seven-day rolling average of deaths listed by date of occurrence remained unchanged on Thursday from the day before.

The Georgia Emergency Management Agency listed 1,825 Current Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations on Thursday, up by 107 from Wednesday. Current Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations have been increasing since June 14.

The number of ventilators in use did decrease in the Thursday Georgia Emergency Management Agency report, from 1,013 to 983.

The number of long-term care facilities listed in the Department of Community Health Report across the state increased to 540 on Thursday, from 534 on Wednesday.

Positive Tests

The Department of Public Health for the first time on Thursday listed the percentage of added molecular tests that resulted in a positive verdict.

The Daily Status Report each day has listed the number of molecular or viral tests and number of serologic tests.

I have computed the percentage positive outcomes and plotted those earlier. My computation matches that of the Department of Public Health in the Thursday Daily Status Report.

Molecular (PCR, for polymerase chain reaction) tests detect active virus and infections. These tests are administered by collecting either nose, nose and throat, or throat specimens, according to the Daily Status Report.

Serology tests detect whether a person may have previously been infected with COVID-19 by attempting to detect antibodies that the person has produced as a result of the infection. Serology tests are administered by collecting a blood specimen, the Daily Status Report states.

The percentages of positive test outcomes for the Molecular Tests has increased rather consistently over time, while the percentage of positive Serologic Tests has declined.


Charts 1 to 3 below are for the 10-county Northeast Health District and are based on data from the Department of Public Health Daily Status Report. The data have been updated based on the 2:50 p.m. report on Thursday.

Charts 4 to 6 are for the state of Georgia and also are based on data from the Daily Status Report, updated for Thursday.

Chart 7 is based on data from the Georgia Emergency Management Agency Situation Report COVID-19 and has been updated with issuance of the Thursday report.

Chart 1 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 3 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 5 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 6 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 7 (Click To Enlarge)


lilly said...

Can you explain the “non Georgia Resident” on the Daily Status Report. Yesterday it was up by several hundred but today (Friday) it was down by over a thousand. Are these tourists, migrant farm workers, or another segment?

Lee Becker said...

I have taken the term literally.
The drop is less than you indicate (8,034 to 7,614, or 420), but it is a drop nonetheless. I looked back several days, and the numbers jump around. The same is true for the Unknown category.
I do know that the Department of Public Health makes adjustments to the records as they become more complete, and that is the only explanation I can offer.