Saturday, July 18, 2020

Northeast Health District Follows State In Setting New Record For Added COVID-19 Cases; Two New COVID-19 Deaths Reported

***Clarke County Adds Record 65 New Confirmed Cases***

The state of Georgia added 4,689 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, a new record, and the Northeast Health District followed suit by adding 160 new cases, also the largest number added in a single day.

Fifteen of those new cases were in Oconee County, the second largest number ever added in a single day, and 65 were in Clarke County, the largest number ever added in a single day.

Every county in the 10-county Northeast Health District added cases on Saturday, and the seven-day rolling average of added cases increased to 122.1, the highest moving average the District has ever recorded.

The Department of Public Health added two new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the Saturday Daily Status Report, of a 38-year-old male in Barrow County without a known chronic condition and of a 75-year-old male in Walton County, also without a known chronic condition.

Despite the addition of the two deaths, the seven-day rolling average of added deaths dropped to 1.0 from 1.4 on Saturday because the District had added five deaths on Saturday of last week.

The Daily Status Report still has not included at least eight deaths listed in the Department of Community Health Long-Term Care Facility Report in Jackson County, part of the Northeast Health District, since June 29.

The Department of Community Health did not release a Long-Term Care Facility Report on Saturday, and the link to the Friday report on the department’s web site actually is to the report on Thursday.

The Georgia Emergency Management Agency also did not list a report on its web site on Saturday, but it showed pictures of part of that report on its Facebook page.

The Georgia Emergency Management Agency stated that 12 Critical Care Beds were available at area hospitals, up from six in the report on Friday. The area’s two hospitals have 70 Critical Care Beds.

Anomaly Of Clarke County

Clarke’s County surge of cases–724 in the last 21 days, compared with 137 in Oconee County–puts Clarke far in the lead in the 10-county Northeast Health District in terms of number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, with 1,205 (Oconee has 283).

Clarke County is the largest of the 10-counties in the Northeast Health District, however, and its ratio of cases per population (0.9 percent) is not exceptional.

What is exceptional is that Clarke County has only 15 deaths attributed to the disease, half the number in Barrow and Walton counties, which follow Clarke in population size.

Oconee County has 14 deaths attributed to COVID-19, yet is has about a third of Clarke County’s population and a quarter of the number of cases.

Only 1.2 percent of Clarke County’s reported cases has resulted in a death, compared with 4.9 percent in Oconee County.

The Clarke County death figures are particularly striking given the high percent of its population that is African-American, a group that has been particularly hard hit by COVID-19 in the state and across the country.

The data on case and death rates for the 10-county Northeast Health District are shown in detail in Chart 4 below.

State Data

The 4,689 new COVID-19 cases added on Saturday across the state pushed the seven-day rolling average of added cases to 3,638.7, an all-time high.

The 36 new deaths resulted in an increase in the rolling average of added deaths to 24.6 on Saturday from 23.9 on Friday. The figure remains low compared to the 40.7 rolling average of deaths added on April 23, the current record.

The 36 deaths include 32 that occurred in the last 14 days, and the seven rolling average of deaths by date of occurrence jumped sharply on Saturday and has increased both of the last two days.

The Georgia Emergency Management Agency reported on Saturday 2,929 Current Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations, the highest number ever recorded going back to May 1, when the data first were made public.

The Agency also reported 1,130 ventilators in use, also a new record going back to May 11, when those data were first released.


The first six charts below are based on data from the Department of Public Health Daily Status Report and have been updated with the 4:22 p.m. issuance of that report on Saturday.

The final chart is based on data from the Georgia Emergency Management Agency Situation Report COVID-19 and is updated based on the Saturday afternoon partial release of that report on Facebook.

Charts 1, 2 and 4 are for the 10-county Northeast Health District, and Chart 3 is for Oconee and Clarke counties only. These two counties are part of the Northeast Health District.

Charts 5 through 7 are for the state of Georgia as a whole.

Chart 1 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 3 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 5 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 6 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 7 (Click To Enlarge)


Unknown said...

Sure does not look like the Governor's plan is working very well. A new study from South Korea just published found the risk of spread from children 10-18 in households was as high as infection from adults. The paper concluded that it would be hard to open schools safely, especially for children 10 and over, in the face of active community spread. The risk with children under 10 was much less, but not zero. If the schools open, we will all be in a continuing experiment of what happens when public health data are ignored by our elected officials.

Jeanne Barsanti

Unknown said...

Why has race data not been updated since July 18th?

Lee Becker said...

You are correct. This deserves an update. This takes quite a bit of time, as the analyses you see here come not from the state but from my own analysis of records for the 10 counties. I will try to get to this soon.

Lee Becker said...

I just want to make sure you say my post of Aug. 8 that included an analysis of race. I still think this needs an update.