University of Georgia Political Science Professor Charles Bullock didn’t tell Oconee County Democrats last month that Joe Biden will win Georgia in November, but that he could, and he explained how that victory likely will have happened if it comes about.
Drawing on data from recent elections, Bullock said Democrats win when they get about 30 percent of the White vote and African-Americans make up about 30 percent of the electorate.
So, by extension, for Democrats to win they have to figure out how to appeal to White voters, particularly in the Atlanta suburbs, and how to motivate Black voters to turn out, he said.
Bullock made his comments before Biden’s poor performance in the June 27 presidential debate, though he did anticipate that debates can make a difference.
Bullock’s comments also were before the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the impact of which is impossible to anticipate based on data from the past since there is no precedence for this type of event.
Bullock did say that Trump and “Trump look-alikes” have run poorly in Georgia compared with other Republicans, citing data from 2016, 2020, 2021, and 2022.
History Lesson
Bulloch, an expert on southern politics, began his presentation with a history lesson, noting that if Biden is defeated this would result in two single-term presidencies back-to-back. Single terms presidencies, however, are not uncommon in American presidential history, he said.
Bullock 6/20/2024 |
Jimmy Carter and Georgia H.W. Bush are contemporary examples.
While it is “atypical” to have “a former president” seeking to “regain the White House,” he said, “this isn’t the first time it has happened.”
Martin Van Buren was elected in 1836, defeated in 1840, and attempted to regain the presidency in 1848. He was defeated.
Grover Cleveland won in 1884, lost in 1888, and was elected again in 1892.
Theodore Roosevelt left the presidency in 1909 after serving part of the term of assassinated President William McKinley and being elected on his own in 1904. He attempted to regain the presidency in 1912 but was defeated.
Status Of Georgia
“We are fortunate,” Bullock said. “We live in one of the states that really matters” in the upcoming election. “For more than 40 states, you can go ahead and put them in the red, the blue column, and no hesitancy about that. No possibility of change.”
Bullock said there are only six to eight states that are “up for grabs,” and Georgia is on that list.
He also identified three different paths to victory on Nov. 5.
The first path, which he called the northern path, involves Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. “Those are worth 42 electors,” Bullock said. Biden won those in 2020, and “he wins these, he’s probably got it.”
“There’s also what I would call a southern path, which involves Georgia,” Bullock said. “This is a richer path. If you win all of these, you get 62.”
The three states on this path are Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina.
The third path, which Bullock called the Sun Belt Path, is made up of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
It produces 49 electors.
What Democrats Must Do To Win
“For Democrats to win in Georgia,” Bullock said, “it has to be a 30-30 situation...maybe its actually 29-29.”
Democrats must get 29 or 30 percent of the White vote, Bullock said, and Black voters must make up 29 or 30 percent of the electorate.
“So those are the two thirties, or two twenty-nines,” Bullock said, “Share of the White vote. And then the role of the size of the Black electorate.”
Bullock said his analysis, going back to 2014, shows this is what is needed.
When Democrats failed to get these numbers, such as in 2014 when Michelle Nunn was running for “her father’s Senate seat” and Jason Carter was running for governor, the Democrats lost, he said.
In 2020 and 2021, Bullock said, Biden and Sen. Raphael Warnock got the White vote they needed and the Black turnout.
Location Of Needed Voters
Bullock said the Democrats need to find college educated White voters to reach that 29 or 30 percent.
“What a Democrat needs among White college-educated voters is 40 percent,” he said.
“Warnock hits 40 percent. He wins,” Bullock said of the 2020 Senate contest.
“Stacey Abrams gets 36 percent” in her 2022 gubernatorial race, Bullock said, “she doesn’t.”
Those college educated White voters are largely in the state’s metropolitan areas, Bullock said.
And that part of the state has become more Democratic over time, according to Bullock.
“So what Democrats have to do, if they’re going to win this state,” he said, “they have to run up the vote totals in the big urban counties. And they just hope they can hang on in the rural counties.”
Reaching The White Voter
Bullock said “a chunk of that 40 percent that a Democrat can hope to get are individuals who generally see themselves as Republicans.”
Bullock 6/20/2024 |
“They generally vote Republican but can’t bring themselves to vote for Donald Trump or someone who is closely associated with him,” Bullock continues.
“The only victories that Democrats have had statewide since 2006,” Bullock said, “have been situations where the Democrat is running against Trump or Trump look-alikes.”
“So I guess the real challenge would be, the question would be, does that continue to hold here in 2024?” Bullock said.
Bullock said Republicans who “have kept Trump at an arms length, like the governor, Gov. (Brian) Kemp, and Secretary of State (Brad) Rafensperger, those are the candidates who saw the biggest increases in their vote shares.”
Debates, Oconee County
In response to a question on the upcoming debate, Bullock said his expectations were low.
“Often, the main impact,” he said, “is that if one of the candidates has a misstatement, and then that becomes the story.”
“One of the candidates has a poor performance, makes mistakes,” that could have impact, Bullock said.
Bullock, who lives in Oconee County, said in response to a question that he expects the county to change and become more Democratic in the future in the same way as the counties surrounding Atlanta have changed.
“People are moving out of Clarke and moving here,” he said. “That same phenomenon. People moving out of the major urban county into the suburb. As they do, things begin to change.”
Video
I was not able to attend the June 20 meeting of the Oconee County Democrats, held in the Oconee County Library at Wire Park.
Party Chair Harold Thompson agreed to place my camera on a tripod at the rear of the room and record the video below.
Bullock began speaking at 7:39 in the video.
The Oconee County Democratic Party is not meeting in July, but the Oconee County Republican Party will meet at 6 p.m. on Monday (July 22) at the Piedmont Oconee Health Campus, 1305 Jennings Mill Road.
Former WGAU News Director Tim Bryant is the guest speaker.
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