Oconee County had its third straight day on Thursday without a new confirmed case of COVID-19 added in the noon Daily Status Report of the Georgia Department of Public Health. The county has 53 confirmed cases.
Clarke County added three cases, and the 10-county Northeast Health District as a whole added 27 cases, up from 24 added in the noon Daily Status Report on Wednesday.
The increase for the Northeast Health District of 27 cases was considerably lower than the 37 cases added a week ago on April 16, and the seven-day rolling average for added cases for the Northeast Region dropped from 22.0 new cases per day to 20.6.
The situation in the Northeast Region differs noticeably from the situation in the state.
Georgia added 772 new cases of confirmed COVID-19 on Thursday, which is 90 more than were added on the Thursday report for April 16. The seven-day rolling average for the state jumped from 821.9 cases per day to 834.7.
The ratio of confirmed cases to population has been roughly twice as high in the state as it is in the 10-Northeast Health District. On Thursday, the state had 202.6 confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population, and the Northeast Health District had 107.6 cases per 100,000.
The Northeast Health District recorded no new cases of COVID-19 deaths with the noon Daily Status Report on Thursday, while the state added 36.
The state had added 35 COVID-19 deaths with the noon Daily Status Report on April 16, and the seven-day rolling average of added deaths went up from 40.6 cases per day to 40.7 cases per day Thursday.
Charts
Chart 1 below plots the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across time for the 10-county Northeast Health District (blue line, right-hand vertical axis) and for Oconee and Clarke counties (green and orange lines, respectively, left-hand vertical axis.)
The table at the bottom includes the data for all 10 of the counties beginning with the discovery of the first case in the region (in Clarke County) on March 14.
The number of deaths for each of the 10 counties is listed in the box at the top, left of the chart.
The data have been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Thursday Daily Status Report.
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| Chart 1 (Click To Enlarge) |
Chart 2 below shows the actual number of new reported confirmed COVID-19 cases across time in the Northeast Health District, with the blue line showing the actual count and the orange line showing the rolling or moving seven-day average.
The lines have been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Thursday Daily Status Report.
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| Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge) |
Chart 3 is an update of a chart I have used periodically in the past.
It shows the ratio of confirmed cases to population, multiplied by 100,000. The Department of Public Health also has standardized some of its data based on 100,000 population.
The Northeast Health District, across the four Thursdays in April shown in the chart, has had just about half the number of cases per 100,000 population as the state.
Based on the data in the noon Daily Status report for Thursday, COVID-19 confirmed cases occur, as stated above, in 107.6 per 100,000 population in the Northeast Heath District, compared to 202.6 per 100,000 in the state.
On April 2, the ratio for the region was 25.3 per 100,000 population, while it was 50.4 per 100,000 population in the state.
Greene and Oglethorpe counties, with small populations, are the outliers in the Northeast Health District, the chart shows, with high numbers of confirmed cases given their relatively small populations.
Oconee County shows a higher ratio than Clarke County, but the Clarke County population figures include the University of Georgia students, many of whom are not now living in the county.
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| Chart 3 (Click To Enlarge) |
Chart 4 below summarizes the cumulative data from the state of Georgia on four indicators: number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, number of tests for the disease, and number of hospitalizations for treatment of the disease.
The charts begin on March 2, when the first cases were discovered in Atlanta. Measures of tests and hospitalizations are included from the point at which the Daily Status Report provided those data.
Each of the four charts has been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Thursday Daily Status Report.
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| Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge) |
Chart 5 below provides the actual number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths attributable to the disease going back to March 2 for the state of Georgia. Those data are plotted with the blue lines.
The orange lines are based on computation of the rolling or moving seven-day averages for confirmed cases and deaths.
The two charts have been updated to include the numbers included in the noon Thursday Daily Status Report.
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| Chart 5 (Click To Enlarge) |
2 comments:
Thank you! Very informative!
The federal/public health guidelines indicate that restrictions should not be loosened until a state has 14 consecutive days of declining case numbers which is why Trump said Kemp is opening too soon. Thanks to your charts we can see that GA definitely does not have declining case numbers. If an individual is deciding what to do, other guidelines are that less than 10% of tests should be positive (means there is enough testing). Again, GA is nowhere near that. There should be less than 40 cases/1,000,000 people per day to avoid outbreaks. This would be 440 cases/day for GA. Again, not near that goal. To be very safe, there should be less than 1 case per 1,000,000 people/day. This would be 12 people/day in Georgia. This level would allow contact tracing and quarantine. Wish we could get there. We Georgians are all now part of an experiment to see what happens when a state opens up despite not meeting any guidelines. The country is watching what happens to us in the next few weeks. Of course, many businesses may chose not to open.
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