Sunday, May 03, 2020

Oconee And Clarke Do Not Add COVID-19 Cases, But Seven-Day Average Of Added Cases For Northeast Health District Increases

Greene County Adds COVID-19 Death***

Neither Oconee County nor Clarke County added any new confirmed COVID-19 cases with the Daily Status Report issued before noon on Sunday, but Barrow County added 10 cases and the Northeast Health District as a whole added 18 cases.

Greene County added a death attributed to the disease with the passing of a 47-year-old male with known chronic conditions, bringing to 30 the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the 10-county district.

The seven-day rolling average of added cases for the Northeast Health District rose to 27.3 from 24.3 a day earlier.

Across the state, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increased by 469, down from 999 a day earlier, and the seven-day rolling average of added cases fell from 776.9 to 743.0.

Though the Department of Public Health did not report any new tests added in the Saturday noon Daily Status Report, it reported adding 6,433 tests with the Sunday report. The number of tests added each day has been quite irregular, with the average number across the last seven days being 7,456.6.

The Department of Public Health reported six additional deaths from COVID-19 with the Sunday Daily Status Report, down from 24 on Saturday, and resulting in a seven-day rolling average of added deaths of 37.9, down from 38.1 a day earlier.

The total number of COVID-19 deaths in the state has reached 1,177.

The Department of Public Health has released the form it uses for recording COVID-19 cases in the state, showing that County is recorded separate from Zip Code.

County Level Data

The Daily Status Report has included county-level data from its beginning in March, but the Department of Public Health had not previously clarified how the data were assigned to counties.

The first chart below shows the Person Under Investigation Form used by the Department of Public Health.

I circled the place on the form that is used to record county, separate from Zip Code.

I have been trying for weeks without success to determine that this distinction was being made, that is, that the data being presented were county-level data rather than Zip Code data.

When the Department of Public Health turned down my open records request for a document specifying how the data were classified by county, saying no such document existed, I turned to Rep. Houston Gaines, in whose district I reside, for help.

Gaines joined with Rep. Marcus Wiedower, who also represents Oconee County, to get this form.

The two of them provided me this copy on Saturday, for which I’m very appreciative.

My focus in this blog has been on reporting data by county and district, and I was concerned that the data were being correctly represented.


The remaining three charts below summarize the data from the Daily Status Report released at 10:25 a.m. on Sunday. No report was issued for 11:25 a.m. or 12:25 p.m.

In addition, to reporting the number of new deaths recorded, the Department of Public Health now is re-dating the cases based on estimated onset of symptoms and dating the deaths.

The Sunday report shows the data behind the charts for number of cases and now for number of deaths. I reported on the re-dated cases on Saturday.

Based on the new data on date of death, the seven-day rolling average for number of deaths was 36.9 on April 19, the last day for which the Department of Public Health reports complete data.

The seven-day rolling average for that date, based on the number of new cases listed, as shown in Chart 4 below, was 36.3.

The suggestion is that the rolling averages in Chart 4 are a reasonable estimate of the current state of deaths in the state attributable to COVID-19.

That estimate give little indication that deaths are declining.

The ratio of deaths to confirmed cases stood at 4.1 with the 10:25 a.m. report on Sunday, and that ratio has been 4.0 or higher every day but one going back to April 21. It has varied very little during that time period.

Chart 1 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 3 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge)

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