Saturday, May 16, 2020

Two State Reports Add Three COVID-19 Deaths In Northeast Health District But Disagree On Where They Occurred

***Number Of Added Cases Four In One Report And 12 In Other***

In the Georgia Department of Public Health Daily Status Report on Saturday, the Northeast Health District added only four confirmed COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, but it also added three deaths.

In the separate Georgia Department of Community Health Long-Term Care Facility Report for late Friday, the Northeast Health District added 10 COVID Positive resident cases at long-term care homes, two COVID Positive staff cases, and three COVID resident deaths.

The two reports rarely report consistent data, and the three deaths in the Daily Status Report from the Department of Public Health were one each in Barrow, Greene and Walton counties, while the three deaths in the Department of Community Health report were all in Barrow County.

Barrow County has a total of 10 resident deaths in long-term care facilities in the Department of Community Health Report, but only a total of eight deaths in the Department of Public Health Report.

Oconee County did not add any new cases or deaths in the Daily Status Report but it did add three positive COVID cases among residents at the High Shoals Health and Rehabilitation nursing home in North High Shoals in the west of the county in the Long-Term Care Facility Report.

Based on the data in the Daily Status Report, the seven-day rolling average of cases in the Northeast Health District dropped from 18.6 on Friday to 16.3 on Saturday.

The Georgia Emergency Management Agency, which also is issuing COVID updates, reported late on Friday that the number of available critical care hospital beds in area hospitals increased from 10 to 16 on Friday.

State Data

Across the state, the Department of Public Health Daily Status Report added 466 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, and the seven-day rolling average of cases added dropped from 708.4 to 664.3.

The Daily Status Report listed 35 deaths not previously reported, bringing the total number of deaths in the state attributed to COVID-19 by the Department of Public Health to 1,592 and the seven-day rolling average of added deaths to 27.4, down from 28.7 a day earlier.

Of those 35 added cases, the Department of Public Health reported on Saturday that only 12 of them actually occurred in the last 14 days. It dated the other 23 as having occurred before May 3.

Using this dating of deaths, the Department of Public Health is showing a small drop in the seven-day rolling average of deaths in the state leading up to May 3.

The simple seven-day rolling average of added deaths in the Daily Status Report shows an increase leading up to May 3.

The Department of Public Health says its data for the period beyond May 2 are incomplete, though it does show deaths added and a rolling average, which suggests a large drop in deaths after that period.

The Department of Community Health Long-Term Care Facility Report for late Friday showed an increase from the day bedfore of 71 in the number of long-term care facility residents with COVID-19 across the state, an increase of 23 deaths, and an increase of 23 COVID-19 Positive Staff.

Charts

The first chart below is for the Northeast Health District of the Department of Public Health. The data are updated for the 1 p.m. Saturday Department of Public Health Daily Status Report.

The second chart below also is for the Northeast Health District of the Department of Public Health, but the data are taken from the May 15 Long-Term Care Facility Report of the Department of Community Health, the most recent available.

The third chart below is for the Hospital District E of the Georgia Emergency Management Agency Situation Report for May 15, the most recent report available.

The data are for the 10 counties in the Department of Public Health Northeast District plus Hart and Franklin counties.

Charts 4 and 5 report data for the entire state of Georgia and are based on data in the Department of Public Health Daily Status Report. The charts are updated to include data from the 1 p.m. report on Saturday.

Chart 6 is for the entire state of Georgia and is from the Georgia Emergency Management Agency Situation Report for May 15. These data are not being reported for Districts within the state and have only recently been publicly reported at all.

The calculation of available ventilators in the chart is my own. In three of the five cases, the number of available ventilators is not calculated in the report as the number of existing ventilators minus the number is use.

It might make sense for the number of available ventilators to be less than the number of existing ventilators minus the number in use, if, for example, some are being repaired.

In two of the five cases, however, the number of available ventilators is greater than the number of existing ventilators minus the number is use.

I treated these as simple subtraction errors and used the number of existing minus the number in use as the number of available ventilators in the chart.

It is possible, of course, that the error is in the number of existing or in the number of ventilators in use, making my calculation incorrect.

Chart 1 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 2 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 3 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 4 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 5 (Click To Enlarge)

Chart 6 (Click To Enlarge)

No comments: