Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Mirroring State Trends, Seven-Day Rolling Averages Of COVID-19 Cases, Deaths Remain Steady In Northeast Health District

***Declines No Longer In Evidence***

The Northeast Health District added 83 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday and, for the first time in a week, no new deaths attributed to the disease. The seven-day rolling averages of both cases and deaths were unchanged from Monday.

Every county in the 10-county Northeast Health District added at least one case with the release of the Department of Public Health Daily Status Report, with Oconee County adding five cases and Clarke County adding 24.

The seven-day rolling average of added cases in Oconee County was unchanged from Monday and in Clarke County increased slightly.

The data reported by the Department of Public Health vary by day of the week, which is why the seven-day rolling averages are more informative than the daily figures.

The District added 83 cases on Tuesday of last week, so the seven-day rolling average on Tuesday was 83.3, exactly the same as on Monday.

The seven-day rolling average a week ago was 75.9. It isn’t clear that the number of cases of COVID-19 are increasing, but it is quite clear that the drop in cases has been halted and cases, at a minimum, are at a plateau.

A week ago, the Department of Public Health also listed no new deaths in the Northeast Health District, and the seven-day rolling average of added deaths was 2.3 on Tuesday, the same as on Monday and Sunday.

That 2.3 deaths per day figure compared with 1.1 on Tuesday a week ago.

As with cases, it isn’t clear that deaths from COVID-19 are decreasing, but they also no longer appear to be dropping.

Community Health Report

The Department of Community Health, in its Long-Term Care Facility Report on Tuesday, listed one new COVID-19 positive resident at the Northeast Health District’s 36 long-term care facilities with cases of the disease and five new COVID-19 positive staff.

The new resident with the corona virus was at Magnolia Estates of Oconee on Virgil Langford Road south of SR 316, bringing to five the number of reported resident cases in the facility. Its resident population is 28.

The new staff cases were at Winder Health Care and Rehabilitation Center in Barrow County, Plaza Personal Care Center at Talmage Terrace in Clarke County, PruittHealth Grandview in Clarke County, and PruittHealth Spring Valley in Elbert County, which had two staff cases reported.

The Georgia Hospital Association (GHA) and the Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) reported on Tuesday the number of COVID-19 patients at area hospitals (51) increased from the day before, that the number of ICU beds in use (65) increased from the day before, and that the number of adult ventilators in use (27) increased from the day before.

The Department of Public Health has not reported daily positivity rates for molecular tests in Oconee Clarke and Clarke County in the last seven days.

State Data

Across the state, the Department of Public Health listed 1,021 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, and the seven-day rolling average of added cases increased slightly to 1,277.9 from 1,271.9 on Monday.

As is the case in the Northeast region, the number of cases is no longer dropping.

The Department of Public Health listed only 12,419 new molecular tests on Tuesday, and the positivity rate was 7.5 percent. The seven-day rolling average of that statistic increased from 5.7 percent on Monday to 5.8 percent on Tuesday.

The positivity rate has been hovering around 5.7 percent over the last week and also no longer seems to be dropping.

The Department of Public Health reported 27 new deaths attributed to COVID-19 on Tuesday, and the seven-day rolling average decreased slightly from 35.1 on Monday to 33.4 on Tuesday.

Sixteen of the added cases occurred in the last 14 days, and the seven-day rolling average of added deaths based on date of occurrence increased slightly from Monday to Tuesday.

The Department of Public Health eliminated two deaths previously attributed to COVID-19 from its list of deaths from the disease.

As is the case with cases, the number of deaths does not seem to be decreasing so much as plateauing.

Across the state, the Georgia Hospital Association (GHA) and the Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) reported on Tuesday that the number of COVID-19 patients (1,330) increased from the day before, the number of ICU beds in use (2,296) decreased from the day before, and the number of adult ventilators in use (896) increased from the day before.

The Department of Community Health reported that COVID-19 was present among residents and/or staff at 645 facilities across the state, the same as on Friday, when the Department last released its Long-Term Care Facility Report.

Charts

All of the charts below are based on data from the Department of Public Health Daily Status Report and have been updated to include data from the release of that report at 2:50 p.m. on Tuesday.

Charts 1 and 2 include data from the 10-county Northeast Health District of the Department of Public Health, which includes Oconee and Clarke counties.

Chart 3 shows data for Oconee and Clarke counties and, in the insert, data for the 12-county Region E of GEMA. Franklin and Hart counties plus the 10 counties of the Northeast Health District make up Region E.

Charts 4 and 5 show data for the entire state of Georgia.

Click on any of the charts to enlarge it.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 5

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