At first glance, it seems the blue wave that swept across the state and country on Tuesday bypassed Oconee County.
The Democrats had not put up candidates in four local races, so Republican County Commissioners Amrey Harden and Chuck Horton, Board of Education Member Ryan Hammock, and Board of Education candidate Kate Patterson swept into office with 100 percent of the counted vote in each case.
Voters elected three Republicans in contested races for state House District 120, state House District 121, and state Senate District 46, even flipping House District 121 back from Democratic control after a special election last December.
And Oconee County voters sent Republican Houston Gaines to Washington to represent them in the U.S. Congress.
But because of the blue wave at the state level, Republicans Ward Black in House District 120 and Mack “Dutch” Guest IV in House District 121 are going to be in the Minority Caucus when they go to Atlanta in January, as Democrats narrowly have taken control of the House, based on current tabulations.
Marc McMain, representing Oconee County in Senate District 46, will enter a Senate very narrowly controlled by Republicans and presided over by Democrat Josh McLaurin as Lieutenant Governor.
Gaines will be part of a Republican minority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
And incumbent Democrat Eric Gisler in House District 121 ran 8.1 percentage points ahead of his vote in the county in 2024, Democrat Suzanna Karatassos in House District 120 ran 8.8 percentage points ahead in the county vote in that race in 2024, Democrat Ray Smith in Senate District 46 ran 7.4 percentage points ahead of the Democrat in Oconee County in 2024, and Democrat Pam DeLancy ran 5.7 percentage points ahead of the Democratic challenger number in Oconee in 2024.
Analysis of the election results shows that the majority of Oconee County voters wanted a Republican to represent them in the Georgia General Assembly and the U.S. Congress, and they will get what they wanted despite what was certainly a Democratic undercurrent because of the races the candidates ran and the nature of the districts they will represent.
House District 121
On average the Republicans running for the nine statewide races on the ballot on Tuesday received 4.7 percentage points fewer votes in Oconee County in 2026 than did the Republicans seeking the same offices in 2022, illustrating the Democratic shift.
Guest’s victory in the state House District 121 race is perhaps most striking in the context of the blue wave that flowed across the state and the blue undercurrent in the county.
Guest had lost House District 121 in a special election in December to Gisler by 198 votes, and his was the only seat that Republicans captured in the Georgia House on Nov. 3.
 |
| Click To Enlarge |
Republican Gov. Brian Kemp had called the special election to replace Republican Marcus Wiedower when Wiedower stepped down unexpectedly at the end of October.
Guest won by 1,332 votes across the district on Tuesday, getting 52.5 percent of the vote, up from his 49.1 percent in December. The 52.5 percent Guest won was down from 61.1 percent Wiedower had earned in a race against Gisler in 2024 and from the 60.4 Wiedower had received against Democrat Jeff Auerback in 2022.
House District 121 consists of Oconee Central, Oconee South, and Dark Corner precincts and parts or all of 10 precincts in Clarke County.
Guest’s vote percentage increased from 64.5 percent in December to 65.9 percent on Tuesday in Oconee County and from 17.7 percent to 24.6 percent in Clarke County.
If Guest had received the same percentages on Tuesday as he had in December, he would have lost by 386 votes.
Oconee County’s gain was crucial to Guest. Had he maintained the small percentage he received in December in Clarke on Tuesday but increased his percentage in Oconee from 64.5 to 65.9, he would have won by 123 votes.
Of the 14,125 votes Guest received on Tuesday, 84.8 percent came from Oconee County, while of the 12,793 votes Gisler received, 48.4 percent, came from Oconee County.
Both Guest and Gisler are from Oconee County.
How Guest Ran
Guest received only 45.2 percent of the votes cast Absentee By Mail in Oconee County, but he received 63.7 percent of the votes cast Advance In Person and 74.2 percent of the votes cast on Election Day.
A total of 18,166 votes were cast in the House District 121 race, and only 3.1 percent were cast Absentee By Mail.
Advance In Person votes accounted for 70.0 percent of those cast, and Election Day votes were 26.9 percent of the total.
Guest ran strongest in Dark Corner Precinct, with 75.7 percent of the vote, and weakest in Oconee Central, with 62.8 percent of the vote.
In Oconee South, Guest received 69.6 percent of the vote.
Oconee Central is the county’s largest precinct, and 69.2 percent of the votes cast in the 121st House District race were in that precinct, followed by 16.9 percent in Dark Corner and 13.9 in Oconee South.
Oconee South Votes
Guest’s votes in Oconee South indicate he overcame any headwinds created by the controversial proposed truck bypass linking SR 15 and U.S. 441 south of Watkinsville.
The proposed route is to accommodate truckers and the residents of Watkinsville at the expense of family farmers in south Oconee County. Guest is Executive Vice President, Business Development, of LAD Truck Lines, a business founded by his father, Mack Guest III.
LAD and its warehouses are in the center of Watkinsville on Barnett Shoals Road
Guest said he opposed the proposed truck bypass in deference to the farmers, though he did not attend a public meeting of those who were in opposition to the bypass.
Gisler did attend that meeting and attempted, unsuccessfully, to obtain on behalf of the farm owners data from state Transportation Board Member Jamie Boswell used by the Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT) and its consulting in proposing the bypass routes. Gisler also made it clear he recognized the need for traffic relief in downtown Watkinsville.
Guest also was supported by Watkinsville Mayor Brian Brodrick, who was the originating proponent of the truck route, and by Boswell, who is a commercial real estate company owner.
Guest also received financial support from the Georgia Highway Contractor’s PAC, the Georgia Transportation Alliance, the Georgia Oilmen’s Association,, the CSX Transportation Inc. State Campaign Account, and the Georgia Ready Mixed Concrete Association.
None of those linkages seemed to matter.
In the December election–five months before GDOT had released its proposed routes to a packed audience at an April Public Information Open House–Guest received 68.8 percent of the vote in South Oconee Precinct.
On Tuesday, Guests received 69.6 of the vote in South Oconee Precinct.
Guest also gained just slightly over his December vote in Oconee Central, which includes Watkinsville (62.1 percent to 62.8 percent) and in Dark Corner Precinct, from 73.0 percent to 75.7 percent.
Outside Funding
Guest ran a relatively quiet campaign. He said the Dec. 9 election was an “outlier” and that the results would be reversed in an election with a larger turnout.
 |
| House District 121 |
While he raised $277,290 in donations as of Oct. 20, the most recent campaign filing deadline, he spent only $82,997, most of it, $68,213, with his consultant, War Room Strategies.
Gisler had raised less, $195,745, but spent more, $154,63.
Guest, however, benefitted from $90,902 in spending by the First Amendment LLC, of Fairfax, Va., and $50,264 in spending by the AFC Victory Fund of Dallas for mailers, phone calls, and digital advertising against Gisler.
A Strong Georgia Inc. also spent an undisclosed amount of money for at lease one mailing supporting Guest.
The AFC mailer attacked Gisler for a vote he made in opposition to a property tax proposal in the House, which also was opposed by Oconee County Commission Chair John Daniell and Watkinsville Mayor Brodrick, both Republicans. It also did not clear the Republican dominated Senate.
Gisler said he was in favor of the Republican House leadership initiative to cut property taxes and shift funding to sales taxes, though he said he would not support any cuts that affect Oconee County Schools.
More than three-quarters of the property taxes in Oconee County go to its schools.
Gisler had rejected that shift from property taxes to sales taxes as proposed by the Georgia Republican House leadership, saying the instability of sales tax revenue was a threat to local governments. Guest correctly said that much of that revenue goes to the sheriff’s office and schools.
The majority of Oconee County voters, on the surface, at least, agreed with Gisler rather than Guest on property taxes on Tuesday, rejecting renewal of the Transportation Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax, which grants property tax relief by shifting funding for transportation to sales tax.
Understanding Turnout
Oconee County historically has high turnout it its elections, and that was the case on Tuesday, with 69.6 of the county’s active voters casting a ballot, the highest percentage in the state. That figure, however, was notably below the 74.7 percent turnout from four years ago.
In neighboring Clarke County, turnout on Tuesday was 58.7 percent, or almost 11 points lower than in Oconee County.
The Oconee County turnout percentage was 69.6 percent in Oconee Central Precinct, 70.7 percent in Oconee South Precinct, and 69.6 percent in Dark Corner Precinct.
Comparable data are not available for Clarke County, because the 121st House District cuts across precinct lines, including parts of or all of 10 precincts.
What the available data do show is that the percentage of the votes on Tuesday in House District 121 from Oconee County was 67.5, up slightly from the 67.2 percent of the vote from Oconee in the December Special Election.
In 2024, the percentage of vote in the 121st election from Oconee was 66.8, and in 2022 it was 67.2.
So Guest benefitted slightly by an increase in the percentage of votes coming from heavily Republican Oconee County versus heavily Democratic Clarke County.
The actual number of voters casting ballots has varied markedly in recent elections, with 26,918 voting on Tuesday, only 11,550 in December, 32,331 in November of 2024, and 26,313 voting in November of 2022.
The 0.3 percent of 26,918 is 80 voters, which could have mattered in a tighter race.
House District 120 Votes
House District 120 has been represented by Republican Gaines since it was created in 2021. It became open in Tuesday’s election because Gaines was seeking to move on to Washington in January.
Both Black and Democrat Karatassos are from Jackson County. Gaines is from Clarke County.
Gaines received 61.2 percent of the vote in the district in 2022, and 61.3 percent in 2024. In terms of actual numbers, Gaines won the district by 5,485 in 2024 and by 7,092 in a higher turnout presidential election in 2024.
 |
| Click To Enlarge |
Black received 51.9 percent of the vote on Tuesday and won by 957 votes.
Gaines carried Oconee County with 74.5 percent in 2022 and 73.4 percent in 2024.
On Tuesday, Black received 64.6 percent in Oconee County.
Gaines had 69.8 percent of the vote in Barrow County in 2022 and 71.2 percent in 2024. Black received 59.4 percent of the vote in Barrow County on Tuesday.
In Jackson County, Gaines got 80.9 percent of the vote in 2022 and 79.5 percent in 2024. On Tuesday, Black received 72.9 percent of the vote.
In Clarke County, Gaines managed to get 44.9 percent of the vote in 2022 and 45.5 percent in 2024. Black was able to get only 35.4 percent of the vote in Clarke County on Tuesday.
House District 120 Turnout, Spending
House District 120 consists of the Oconee Northeast Precinct and parts of Clarke, Barrow, and Jackson counties.
Turnout in the whole of Clarke County was 58.7 percent in Tuesday’s election. It was 50.8 percent in Barrow County, and 53.6 percent in Jackson County. Turnout in the Oconee Northeast precinct, which is part of the 120th, was 69.2 percent.
 |
| House District 120 |
The percentage of the vote in the 120th House District that came from Oconee County in the just completed election was 17.9, up from 17.5 percent two years ago but down from 18.6 percent in 2022.
The percentage of the vote that was from Clarke County at 49.5 was up from two years ago and up just slightly from four years ago.
The percent of the vote in Jackson County was down from both 2024 and 2022, while the percent of vote from Barrow County was down from two years ago but up from four years ago.
In winning, Black overcame an increase in the percentage of votes from Clarke County, where he was greatly outvoted in favor of Karatassos, and a decrease in the percentage of votes from Oconee and Jackson counties, where he was dominant.
Black has a huge advantage in terms of funding for his campaign, having raised $221,879 as of Oct. 20, more than double the $104,790 raised by Karatassos.
Black spent $165,171, again more than double the $73,438 spent by Karatassos.
In addition to his own spending, AFC Victory Fund also spent $134,643 in support of Black, and the National Rifle Association of America Political Victory fund, based in Fairfax, Va., spent $28,114 in support of Black.
Of the $165,171 that Black reported spending this year, $136,251 was with War Room Strategies, or 82.5 percent.
Senate District 46 Votes
Oconee County has been represented in the state Senate by Republican Bill Cowsert, at Athens attorney, since 2007. Cowsert didn’t run for re-election this year, opting to run instead, unsuccessfully, for the party nomination for Attorney General.
Oconee County is the only county wholly in the 46th Senate District, which, since 2022, also includes parts of Clarke County, Walton County, Barrow County, and Gwinnett County.
McMain is from Walton County, while Smith is from Oconee County.
Republican McMain received 54.7 percent of the vote across all five counties on Tuesday, down by 9.0 percentage points from the 63.7 percent that Cowsert received in 2024 and down by 9.2 points from Cowsert’s percentage in 2022.
In terms of vote tallies, McMain won by 7,627 votes in 2026, while Cowsert won by 27.744 in 2024 and by 20,999 in 2022.
 |
| Click To Enlarge |
McMain won with 66.4 percent of the vote in Oconee County on Tuesday, compared with the 73.8 percent Cowsert received in 2024 and the 73.2 percent he received in 2022.
McMain received 31.3 percent of the vote in Clarke County on Nov. 3, compared with the 41.3 percent Cowsert received in Clarke County in 2024 and the 37.5 percent he received in 2022.
In Walton County, McMain’s percentage in 2026 was 71.2, compared with Cowsert’s 77.1 percent in 2024 and 78.1 percent in 2022.
In Barrow County, McMain received 49.2 percent of the vote, while Cowsert had received 63.9 percent in 2024 and 66.1 percent in 2022.
In Gwinnett, McMain received 33.7 percent of the vote in 2026, compared with the 47.2 percent for Cowsert in 2024 and the 49.4 percent in 2022.
Senate District 46 Turnout, Spending
McMain won in the two counties with the largest numbers of voters in Senate District 46, Walton County, with 29.8 percent of the vote, and Oconee County, with 27.7 percent of the vote. Together these two counties contribute 57.5 percent of the vote.
McMain lost in Clarke (19.6 percent of the vote), Gwinnett (15.0 percent), and Barrow (7.9 percent). The three counties contribute 42.5 percent of the vote.
 |
| Senate District 46 |
Gwinnett’s role in the district increased, from 13.2 percent of the votes cast in 2022 to 15.0 in 2026, while Oconee County’s decreased, from 29.4 percent in 2022 to 27.7 percent in 2026.
The overall turnout rates in 2026 were 69.6 percent in Oconee, 58.7 percent in Clarke, 50.8 percent in Barrow, 56.2 percent in Walton, and 56.5 percent in Gwinnett, meaning that Oconee County contribution to the outcome of the race in Senate District 46, as well as in the two House districts, was exaggerated by its high turnout rate.
McMain’s contributions dwarfed the contributions Smith received.
On Oct. 20, the last filing period before the election, McMain reported receiving $679,894 and spending $578,834.
Smith reported receiving $54,994 and spending $45,889.
In addition, the AFC Victory Fund spent $123,870 in support of McMain.
Of the $578,834 McMain reported spending in the campaign since the beginning of the year, $362,309, or 62.6 percent, was with War Room Strategies.
Congressional District 10
In the U.S. 10th Congressional District race on Tuesday, Republican Gaines defeated Democrat DeLancy by 7.2 percentage points, 53.6 percent to 46.4 percent, the third closest race among the 14th Georgia Congressional District contests.
The 7.2 percentage point gap was greater than the 4.2 percent spread in the 12th District and the 2.8 percent spread in the 1st Congressional District.
Analysis of data from the May primary already had suggested that the 10th District had become more competitive.
In 2024, incumbent Republican Mike Collins defeated Democrat Alexandra “Lexi” Doherty across the district by 26.2 percentage points, 63.1 to 36.9, compared to the 7.2 percentage point gap between Gaines and DeLancy on Tuesday.
Collins decided to give up the 10th District Congressional seat to challenge incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff in the U.S. Senate race. Collins lost to Ossoff by 18 percentage points across the state on Tuesday.
 |
| Click To Enlarge |
Gaines got 66.7 percent of the vote in Oconee County on Tuesday, compared with Collins’s 72.4 percent two years ago, or a drop of 7.7 percentage points.
That 66.7 percent of vote for Gaines ranks Oconee County in the ninth from the top position among the 20 counties in the district in terms of Republican support, with less support than in Walton County in terms of percentages but more than in Elbert County.
Gaines did best in Franklin County with 82.7 percent of the vote and worse in his home county of Clarke, with only 24.9 percent of the vote.
Gaines got only 31.4 percent of the vote in Henry County, the home county of DeLancy.
Oconee County contributed 7.0 percent of the votes cast in the 10th Congressional District election on Tuesday, the fifth most in the district.
Henry County, which is only partially in the district, contributed the most, with 16.2 percent of the votes cast, followed by Walton, Clarke, and Barrow, and then Oconee.
Gaines raised $2.8 million for his campaign as of Oct. 14 and spent $1.8 million, leaving him with just less than $1.1 million in the final weeks of the campaign.
DeLancy raised only $78,669 for her campaign as of Oct. 14, including loans, and spent $44,421, leaving her with $24,291 cash on hand in the final weeks of the campaign.
Gerrymandered Districts
Black, Guest, McMain, and Gaines entered the races knowing they were in districts created by the Republican General Assembly to make the districts safe for Republicans.
Karatassos, Gisler, Smith, and DeLancy knew they were challengers with the odds stacked against them.
Even Gisler, who had won in the special election in December, said repeatedly during the campaign that he wasn’t certain he could hold the seat in a higher turnout race given its composition.
None of the eight candidates who sought to represent Oconee County in the General Assembly or U.S. House is likely to have foreseen the state and national shift in voter support that Tuesday produced.
Clearly there was a shift away from Republicans and toward Democrats in each of the four districts that include Oconee County, though the shift wasn’t enough to overcome the barriers set up to retain Republican control in each of the four.
What happens in the future is an unknown, of course. Smith, at the Oconee County Democratic Party meeting last week, gave indications that he intends to run again. He said he found his gains in a very Republican Senate District to be encouraging.
None of the other three attended that meeting.
Oconee County is being used as a Republican anchor in each of the four districts, but particularly in House Districts 120 and 121 and Senate District 46.
Oconee County was whole in a House District prior to redistricting in 2011 and is now split to disperse votes from Clarke County, which is heavily Democratic.
Clarke County is represented in the House, even after Tuesday’s election, by one Democrat and three Republicans, despite voting overwhelming Democratic. Gaines received only 24.9 percent of the vote in the county in the U.S. House race. Ossoff received 78.5 percent of the vote in the U.S. Senate race.
Oconee is the only county whole in Senate District 46.
Clarke County is divided between two Senate Districts, both represented by a Republican, before and after Tuesday,
Oconee County Representation
In Oconee County and elsewhere in the state, Ossoff clearly benefitted from cross-over voting, received only 38.9 percent of the Oconee County vote on Tuesday, the highest percentage for a Democrat in the county in recent years.
It is clear that the vast majority of Oconee County voters prefer to be represented by a Republican.
The irony is that Republican gerrymandering designed to weaken the role of Clarke County Democratic voters in the State House and State Senate has threatened Oconee County Republican representation.
Black won House District 120 by only 957 votes on Tuesday, meaning higher turnout in Clarke County in the 2028 Presidential Election year, accompanied possibly by lower turnout in Oconee, could result in at least a part of Oconee being represented again by a Democrat.
Shifts in turnout outside Oconee, as well as shifts in voter preferences and turnout in Oconee, could result in that happening in House District 121, Senate District 46, and Congressional District 10 as well.
House District 121 elected a Democrat on Dec. 9, even without a disproportionate increase in Clarke County turnout.
Those voters who did turn out preferred a Democrat.
No comments:
Post a Comment